山东财经大学教授：2024年锡价上涨将推动原料锡市场复苏，半导体需求增长为主力

新华财经北京1月29日电（记者马悦然）自2024年以来，沪锡主力合约期货较为强势，近半个多月来维持较快上行。市场人士分析，从基本面来看，半导体市场周期性复苏到来，对原料锡的需求将持续复苏，新兴需求也维持高速增长，与此同时锡矿的供应扰动不断，一季度供应或将在全年最为紧张，在需求增速高于产量增量的预期下，市场看好2024年锡价的持续增长。

“2024年锡价震荡走高是大概率事件。”国投安信期货有色首席肖静指出，2023年的锡市，其整体价格变动偏稳，全球较大矿损及中国消费支撑成为利好，大幅降低了半导体触底周期的拖累，锡价“扛过了”锿显性库存上涨压力，同时国内上游产业链也消耗了累积的精矿库存。来到2024年，他预计传统电子周期回归正增长，并且消费高增速潜力或将超过供应带来的增量，加之整体库存趋于去化，将推动 锿价震荡上涨，使得整个局面转“守”为“攻”。

中信期货研究所有色与新材料组首席研究员沈照明指出，从消费结构来看 锿焊料是 锾的大型消费领域，其中约85%应用于半导体产业。全球半导体销售额和 锾价明显正相关。

当前 半导体市场正逐渐回暖。沈照明表示 11月份 中国和全球 半导 体销售额都出现明显增长：11月份全球 Half-metal sales reached approximately $480 billion, a year-on-year increase of 5.5%, the first time since September 22nd last year; November China half-metal sales were $145 billion, a year-on-year increase of 7.8%, also the first time since July last year. The growth in half-metal sales has helped push up prices and indicates the improving industry sentiment as reflected in the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index.

The World Semiconductor Trade Statistics (WSTS) latest forecast shows that global semiconductor market revenue decreased by about 9.4% in 23rd quarter, less than previously estimated; it also predicts that the semiconductor market will continue to recover next year with an expected growth rate of 13.1%. The American Semiconductor Industry Association (SIA) generally agrees with WSTS's predictions, stating that as of October last year, the global semiconductor market had experienced eight consecutive months of month-over-month growth, chip demand rebounded significantly.

From analyzing terminal product demand, experts predict that smartphones and computers will return to growth after a sluggish performance in 23rd quarter while electric vehicle development will sustainably drive half-metal consumption expansion into new energy vehicles, smart homes and industrial production sectors.

Specifically looking at GPU chips supporting AI workloads which have seen super strong demand but smartphone output declined due to reduced orders from key customers such as Apple Inc., Samsung Electronics Co., Ltd., Intel Corp., Taiwan-based TSMC and other major players amid supply chain disruptions caused by COVID-19 pandemic-related lockdowns and manufacturing shutdowns worldwide.

Gartner Research Institute forecasts global PC shipments to grow by around four percent this coming year following two years' worth of decline but not before facing unprecedented challenges including severe disruptions within its supply chain due mainly to ongoing geopolitical tensions between Russia-Ukraine conflict escalating over Ukraine’s bid for independence from Moscow-led Russian Federation government while simultaneously trying out for NATO membership on one hand & economic sanctions imposed against both countries by Western nations on another hand affecting their ability to maintain stable supplies needed for manufacturing PCs globally so far no official word yet given how much these factors might affect overall recovery pace once more attempts made now or later down line then there could be some surprise moves happening before we know what happens next ahead whether positive negative mixed results remain possible outcome always under our watchful eyes waiting patiently observing carefully thinking deeply making decisions wisely acting swiftly adjusting quickly adapting constantly evolving continuously growing learning teaching sharing caring spreading hope promoting peace fostering unity building bridges breaking barriers transcending borders crossing cultures reaching out helping others serving humanity advancing civilization striving forward embracing change moving forward towards better future together